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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis\u2019 assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.<\/p>\n
LAST UPDATED: Jan. 19, 2023<\/p>\n
2023 OSCARS PREDICTIONS: BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
\nCATEGORY COMMENTARY: The only safe pick is \u201cAll That Breathes.\u201d<\/p>\n
The next tier of \u201cgood bets\u201d are \u201cNavalny\u201d and \u201cFire of Love.\u201d<\/p>\n
The rest are on the bubble but seem to stop at \u201cThe Territory\u201d at no. 10, but who really knows?<\/p>\n
As you can see, I\u2019m predicting the quintessential \u201csnub the frontrunner\u201d move by the doc branch, which explains the exclusion of \u201cAll the Beauty and the Bloodshed.\u201d<\/p>\n
NOTE: All credited nominees are ultimately determined by the Academy.<\/p>\n
You can read the final Variety Awards Circuit column before nominations here. Nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Jan. 24.<\/p>\n
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety\u2019s Oscars Collective. To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety\u2019s Oscars Hub.<\/p>\n
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.<\/p>\n
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:<\/p>\n
And The Predicted Nominees Are:<\/p>\n
Rank\tFilm\tDirector(s) and Producer(s)\tDistributor<\/i><\/p>\n
\u201cAll That Breathes\u201d\tShaunak Sen (director and producer), Teddy Leifer, Aman Mann (producers)\tHBO Documentary Films \/ Sideshow<\/p>\n
The darkening backdrop of Delhi\u2019s apocalyptic air and escalating violence, two brothers devote their lives to protect one casualty of the turbulent times: the bird known as the Black Kite.<\/p>\n
\u201cNavalny\u201d\tDaniel Roher (director), Diane Becker, Shane Boris, Melanie Miller, Odessa Rae (producers)\tCNN\/Warner Bros.<\/p>\n
Follows the man who survived an assassination attempt by poisoning with a lethal nerve agent in August 2020. During his months-long recovery he makes shocking discoveries about the attempt on his life and decides to return home<\/p>\n
\u201cFire of Love\u201d\tSara Dosa (director, producer), Shane Boris, Ina Fichman (producers)\tNational Geographic Documentary Films\/Neon<\/p>\n
Intrepid scientists and lovers Katia and Maurice Krafft died in a volcanic explosion doing the very thing that brought them together: unraveling the mysteries of volcanoes by capturing the most explosive imagery ever recorded.<\/p>\n
\u201cDescendant\u201d\tMargaret Brown (director, producer), Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin (producers)\tNetflix<\/p>\n
Follows descendants of the survivors from the Clotilda, the last ship that carried enslaved Africans to the United States, as they reclaim their story.<\/p>\n
\u201cHallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song\u201d\tDaniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine (directors, producers)\tSony Pictures Classics<\/p>\n
This feature-length documentary explores the life of singer-songwriter Leonard Cohen as seen through the prism of his internationally renowned hymn, Hallelujah.
\nNext in Line<\/p>\n
\u201cRetrograde\u201d\tMatthew Heineman (director, producer), Caitlin McNally (producer)\tNational Geographic Films<\/p>\n
Tells the story of the last months of the 20-year war in Afghanistan through the intimate relationship between American Green Berets and the Afghan officers they trained.<\/p>\n
\u201cBad Axe\u201d\tDavid Siev (director, producer), Jude Harris, Diane-Moy Quon, Katarina Vasquez (producers)\tIFC Films<\/p>\n
A real-time portrait of 2020 unfolds as an Asian-American family in Trump\u2019s rural America fights to keep their restaurant and American dream alive in the face of a pandemic, Neo-Nazis, and generational scars from the Killing Fields.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll the Beauty and the Bloodshed\u201d\tLaura Poitras (director and producer), Howard Gertler, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov, John S. Lyons (producers)\tNeon<\/p>\n
It follows the life of artist Nan Goldin and the downfall of the Sackler family, the pharmaceutical dynasty who was greatly responsible for the opioid epidemic\u2019s unfathomable death toll.<\/p>\n
\u201cMoonage Daydream\u201d\tBrett Morgen (director, producer)\tNeon<\/p>\n
A cinematic odyssey exploring David Bowie\u2019s creative and musical journey. From visionary filmmaker Brett Morgen, and sanctioned by the Bowie estate.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Territory\u201d\tAlex Pritz (director, producer), Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekj\u00e6r, Lizzie Gillett, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida\tNational Geographic<\/p>\n
When a network of Brazilian farmers seizes a protected area of the Amazon rainforest, a young Indigenous leader and his mentor must fight back in defense of the land and an uncontacted group living deep within the forest.
\nOther Top-Tier Contenders<\/p>\n
\u201cLast Flight Home\u201d\tOndi Timoner (director), David Turner (producer)\tMTV Documentary Films<\/p>\n
\u201cA House Made of Splinters\u201d\tSimon Lereng Wilmont (director), Monica Hellstr\u00f6m (producer)\tMadman Entertainment<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Janes\u201d\tTia Lessin (director), Emma Pildes (producer and director), Daniel Arcana, Jessica Levin (producers)\tHBO Documentary Films<\/p>\n
\u201cHidden Letters\u201d\tViolet Du Feng (director, producer), Mette Cheng Munthe Kaas, Su Kim, Jean Tsien (producers)\tCargo Film & Releasing<\/p>\n
\u201cChildren of the Mist\u201d\tHa Le Diem (director), Swann Dubus, Phuong Thao Tran (producers)\t<\/p>\n
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
\nBEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT<\/p>\n
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on ABC on Sunday, March 12, 2023.<\/p>\n
2022 category winner: \u201cSummer of Soul\u201d (Onyx\/Searchlight Pictures)<\/p>\n
ABOUT VARIETY AWARDS CIRCUIT:
\nVariety\u2019s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online and provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year\u2019s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes \u2014 Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety\u2019s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.<\/p>\n
View this article at Variety<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Final Oscars Predictions: Documentary Feature \u2013 Will the Branch Snub the Frontrunner (Again)?: Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The
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