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We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Nominations voting is from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. And finally, the 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET\/ 5:00 p.m. PT.<\/p>\n
Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson are collaborating on predictions updates for this category. See Thompson\u2019s preliminary thoughts for what to expect at the 95th Academy Awards here and earlier predictions for this category here.<\/p>\n
The State of the Race<\/p>\n
As the Academy grows more international, the most international of Oscar categories has grown more unpredictable. In recent years, the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film has been pretty clear early on (\u201cA Fantastic Woman,\u201d \u201cDrive My Car,\u201d \u201cAnother Round,\u201d \u201cParasite,\u201d \u201cRoma\u201d).<\/p>\n
This time, a plethora of movies from around the world are jockeying for attention from Academy voters in a rather open-ended race. However, the possibilities have narrowed in recent weeks to a handful of contenders, most of which started their journeys at Cannes or Venice.<\/p>\n
For the moment, a handful of veteran auteurs are facing off against newer faces from the festival circuit. Yes, Park Chan-wook\u2019s \u201cDecision to Leave\u201d and Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu\u2019s \u201cBardo\u201d are gathering momentum, but the same could be said for Santiago Mitre\u2019s \u201cArgentina 1985\u201d and Ali Abbasi\u2019s \u201cHoly Spider.\u201d Of course, there\u2019s often a sleeper surprise like 2019 nominee \u201cLunana: A Yak in the Classroom,\u201d and this year has a few possibilities on that front as well. Even after the shortlist drops, the category is likely to remain a tough call all the way to Oscar night.<\/p>\n
With the shortlist of 15 contenders for the category set to come out on December 21, countries had to submit their official Oscar selections to the Academy by October 3. A total 92 countries submitted films this year, just one less than last year\u2019s record of 93 (Russia, which submitted \u201cUnclenching the Fists\u201d in 2021, declined to submit a film this year due to tensions with the U.S. over the invasion of Ukraine).<\/p>\n
Most of the Cannes contenders from several months ago continue to build buzz. Belgian submission \u201cClose,\u201d from 31-year-old director Lukas Dhont, delivers the emotional story of a 13-year-old boy (Eden Dambrine) struggling with the unexpected loss of his close friend. A24 acquired the Grand Prix winner out of Cannes and has recently been screening it stateside at Oscar-friendly festivals ranging from Telluride to AFI. (Dhont\u2019s crowdpleaser beat out Belgian auteurs Jean-Pierre and Luc Dardenne\u2019s Cannes entry \u201cTori and Lokita.\u201d) However, even as \u201cClose\u201d makes the festival rounds, A24 hasn\u2019t qualified it yet; it opens theatrically on January 20, so it may take some time for responses to trickle in.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, a veteran from Cannes has been basking in the glow of a successful U.S. response: Park Chan-wook, overdue for Academy recognition, has embraced the wider audience that his elegant noir \u201cDecision to Leave\u201d has been finding at festivals and theaters alike (the MUBI release is approaching half a million dollars in limited theatrical release). Less gory or erotic than the likes of \u201cSympathy For Lady Vengeance\u201d or \u201cOldboy,\u201d the story of a detective who falls for a femme fatale won Park Best Director at Cannes, kickstarting talk of more awards potential for this revered but underappreciated Korean auteur. On the other hand, much of \u201cDecision to Leave\u201d is an exercise in style that leaves some viewers scratching their heads, and lacks the emotional tugs that often accompany an Oscar winner.<\/p>\n
“EO”<\/p>\n
A similar uncertainty surrounds 83-year-old Polish auteur Jerzy Skolimowski\u2019s \u201cEO,\u201d a nearly wordless look at the plight of a donkey as he faces brutality from various human owners and the movie adopts his perspective. A modern day update to Robert Bresson\u2019s \u201cAu Hasard Balthazar,\u201d Skolimowski\u2019s complex visual achievement (which included the use of eight donkeys to portray the lead) was a hit out of the Cannes competition and won the jury prize at the ceremony, where the director brayed like his star in his speech. Some squeamish voters may be reticent to embrace a movie about animal intelligence when said animal suffers so much, but many filmmakers adore Skolimowski\u2019s cinematic touch. Janus and Sideshow are hoping to follow up last year\u2019s \u201cDrive My Car\u201d victory by keeping this movie in the conversation.<\/p>\n
A more accessible option from Cannes is Un Certain Regard hit \u201cCorsage,\u201d the Austrian submission from director Marie Kreutzer starring the ever-appealing Vicky Krieps. Set in 1877, the movie stars the \u201cPhantom Thread\u201d breakout as the willful Duchess Elisabeth Amalie Eugenie in Bavaria, Empress of Austria and Queen of Hungary, as she turns 40 and loses patience with the formalities of royal life. The Best Actress race is far too competitive for Krieps to have a shot at a nomination, though appreciation for her performance could help the movie edge its way onto the shortlist and stay in the conversation.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s also the case for another Cannes hit, Danish entry \u201cHoly Spider,\u201d which features a comeback performance by Iranian actress Zar Amir Ebrahimi after a sex tape scandal forced her to flee the country years ago. Set in Iran but shot in Jordan, the sophomore effort from Ali Abbasi (his celebrated debut \u201cBorder\u201d landed a hair and makeup nomination) is a thriller based on the true story of a serial killer who targeted prostitutes \u2014 and nearly got away with it. Academy members have embraced this unconventional look at misogyny in Iran, especially in recent weeks, as women\u2019s rights protests have gained traction on the global stage.<\/p>\n
In a similar vein, Egyptian-born filmmaker Tarik Saleh\u2019s thriller \u201cCairo Conspiracy\u201d (previously titled \u201cBoy From Heaven\u201d) takes an approach reminiscent of John le Carr\u00e9 to its look at a Cairo university student swept up a corrupt scheme to replace the imam. The film, another Cannes competition entry, recently became the highest-grossing international film in Paris since \u201cParasite.\u201d<\/p>\n
That brings us to more recent fall titles, where two Venice highlights loom large. After a rocky start at Venice, Alejandro G. I\u00f1\u00e1rritu\u2019s since-shortened\u201cBardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths\u201d has been more widely embraced by Academy members for its surreal comic look at a famous documentarian trapped between his Latin American identity and his success in the U.S. While Netflix aims to push for wider recognition of \u201cBardo\u201d in other categories, the movie\u2019s selection as the Mexican Oscar submission and its high profile in Hollywood mean that it stands a good chance at remaining a top contender in the months ahead.<\/p>\n
Argentina 1985<\/p>\n
Another Venice competitor with streaming muscle behind it is \u201cArgentina 1985.\u201d Rising Latin American auteur Santiago Mitre (\u201cThe Summit\u201d) directs the ubiquitous Argentine star Ricardo Dar\u00edn (star of two previous Oscar nominees in this category, \u201cWild Tales\u201d and winner \u201cThe Secret in Their Eyes\u201d) in this dramatic recreation of the Trial of the Juntas. Dar\u00edn plays lawyer Julio C\u00e9sar Strassera, who led the effort to put members of the military dictatorship on trials. With its rousing look at the importance of the justice system, this classical entry into the category may be the most uniformly respected film in the category, and could easily maintain its frontrunner status if other contenders continue to divide the Academy.<\/p>\n
Then again, there are some even bigger films in contention this year. While Netflix\u2019s awards team is naturally hyping their name auteur, their international entry gaining cachet on the screening circuit is German entry \u201cAll Quiet on the Western Front,\u201d Edward Berger\u2019s gorgeously wrought adaptation of the Erich Maria Remarque World War I classic; Lewis Milestone\u2019s movie version won the Best Picture Oscar in 1930. The familiar story of a group of German students enthusiastically enlisting to fight on the front lines is heart-rending and hopeless and is generating word-of-mouth beyond the international category. Cinematography is a distinct possibility.<\/p>\n
Another epic, Gunnar Vikene\u2019s $10 million \u201cWar Sailor\u201d \u2014 Norway\u2019s biggest-budget picture to date \u2014 was shot over 60 days in Malta, Norway, and Germany. The movie takes a look at World War II from a different point of view. Two merchant seamen (Kristoffer Joner and P\u00e5l Sverre Hagen) sign onto an 18-month ocean voyage and get caught for years in the war \u2014 fighting for the Allies while Bergen is under German occupation. They can\u2019t go home until the war is over. One has a family, the other doesn\u2019t. Surviving the war doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that reports of buildings bombed and ships torpedoed reflect the truth. Miscommunication and separation lead to heartbreak. And heartbreak often leads to Oscar buzz.<\/p>\n
Still, there is potential for challenging cinema and exciting new voices to make inroads with this category if enough Academy members rally around it. That\u2019s what France is hoping to happen with \u201cSaint Omer,\u201d another Venice hit, which marks the narrative debut of documentarian Alice Diop. The movie, which follows the experiences of a young novelist (Kayije Kagame) attempting to write a new version of the Medea myth, is a complex meditation on Black women in modern-day France.<\/p>\n
After it won both the Grand Jury prize and the award for best debut feature in Venice, \u201cSaint Omer\u201d was acquired by Neon\u2019s Super Ltd. and later beat out four other French shortlist contenders under considered by France\u2019s newly revised submission committee. With lengthy, dialogue-driven courtroom scenes (the protagonist follows the trial of an immigrant charged with infanticide), \u201cSaint Omer\u201d is a complex viewing challenge that nonetheless has many audiences fired up about its absorbing, meditative style. In this case, the \u201cchallenging\u201d label might actually help the movie as it keeps people talking and appreciative of its bold narrative approach.<\/p>\n
Alcarras<\/p>\n
Plenty of other newcomers could sneak into the shortlist, from Cambodian entry \u201cReturn to Seoul\u201d from producer-turned-director Davy Chou to Berlinale winner \u201cAlcarr\u00e0s,\u201d from young Spanish director Carla Sim\u00f3n. There are also a pair of bold queer dramas from countries where LGBT subjects are considered taboo: \u201cBlue Caftan,\u201d from Morocco, and \u201cJoyland,\u201d from Pakistan; both films revolve around gay men who struggle with repression in their conservative communities, a representational milestone that could help the films stand out.<\/p>\n
Finally, the continuing Academy appreciation for \u201cRRR,\u201d which India did not submit to this category, means that foreign-language cinema will continue to lobby for more Best Picture recognition in a post-\u201cParasite\u201d world.<\/p>\n
Contenders for the shortlist are listed in alphabetical order. No film will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen it. A full list of international submissions can be found here.<\/p>\n
Frontrunners:
\n\u201cAlcarr\u00e0s\u201d (Carla Sim\u00f3n, Spain)
\n\u201cAll Quiet on the Western Front\u201d (Edward Berger, Germany)
\n\u201cArgentina, 1985\u201d (Santiago Mitre, Argentina)
\n\u201cBardo\u201d (Alejandro Gonz\u00e1lez I\u00f1\u00e1rritu, Mexico)
\n\u201cBlue Caftan\u201d (Maryam Touzani, Morocco)
\n\u201cCairo Conspiracy\u201d (Tarik Saleh, Sweden)
\n\u201cClose\u201d (Lukas Dhont, Belgium)
\n\u201cCorsage\u201d (Marie Kreutzer, Austria)
\n\u201cDecision to Leave\u201d (Park Chan-wook, Korea)
\n\u201cHoly Spider\u201d (Denmark)
\n\u201cJoyland\u201d (Saim Sadiq)
\n\u201cSaint Omer\u201d (Alice Diop, France)
\n\u201cWar Sailor\u201d (Norway)
\n\u201cEO\u201d (Jerzy Skolimowski, Poland)<\/p>\n
Contenders:
\n\u201cNostalgia\u201d (Mario Martone)
\n\u201cGirl Picture\u201d (Alli Haapasalo, Finland)
\n\u201cA Piece Of Sky\u201d (Michael Koch, Switzerland)
\n\u201cReturn to Seoul\u201d (Davy Chou, Cambodia)
\n\u201cThe Quiet Girl\u201d (Colm Bair\u00e9ad, Ireland)<\/p>\n
View this article at IndieWire<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oscars 2023: Best International Feature Film Predictions: We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Nominations voting is from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. And finally,
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