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We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Nominations voting is from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. And finally, the 95th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 12 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET\/ 5:00 p.m. PT.<\/p>\n
The State of the Race
\nWhile the greatest Best Adapted Screenplay contenders are ahead of us, there have been films of all kinds of scale that have kicked off the conversation about what film will win. In January, Sundance premiered \u201cLiving,\u201d the small but grand remake of \u201cIkiru\u201d that stars Bill Nighy, and was written by accomplished novelist Kazuo Ishiguro. While that won\u2019t be available to the public until November, \u201cTop Gun: Maverick,\u201d the summer\u2019s biggest blockbuster, is also generating Oscar buzz for screenwriters Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, the fall festivals are poised to have the biggest impact on this category. Two-time Best Original Screenplay nominee Noah Baumbach continues to edge closer to his first Oscar win by bringing Don DeLillo\u2019s \u201cWhite Noise\u201d to the big screen, bringing his own take to a novel many considered to be unadaptable. That film opens both the Venice and New York Film Festivals, a first.<\/p>\n
TIFF, meanwhile, will unleash several contenders. Celebrated Canadian director Sarah Polley\u2019s \u201cWomen Talking\u201d adapts Miriam Toews\u2019 2018 novel about several Mennonite women who meet to discuss their experiences with sexual assault and rape in their community. Sebasti\u00e1n Lelio\u2019s crisis-of-faith drama \u201cThe Wonder\u201d stars Florence Pugh and adapts Emma Donoghue\u2019s novel about an English nurse assigned to observe a fasting girl; Donoghue wrote the screenplay with Alice Birch and Lelio, who won the Best International Film Oscar for 2017\u2019s \u201cA Fantastic Woman.\u201d TIFF will also premiere Rian Johnson\u2019s sequel \u201cGlass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,\u201d a sequel to his 2019 nominee for Best Original Screenplay (sequels fall into the adapted category).<\/p>\n
Venice will launch two play adaptations with awards potential, the first one being the Brendan Fraser-starring father-daughter drama \u201cThe Whale,\u201d which Darren Aronofsky adapted from Samuel D. Hunter, who has sole writing credit on the feature. The other play adaptation taking flight on the Lido being \u201cThe Son,\u201d director Florian Zeller\u2019s follow-up to \u201cThe Father,\u201d for which he won a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. As with \u201cThe Father,\u201d the new movie draws from Zeller\u2019s stage work, with Christopher Hampton once again credited as co-writer. NYFF, meanwhile, has the premiere of \u201cShe Said,\u201d which adapts the non-fiction tome by New York Times reporters Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey about their reporting on Harvey Weinstein\u2019s history of sexual assault.<\/p>\n
Finally, there are some year-end blockbusters that could give \u201cTop Gun: Maverick\u201d some company. While their predecessors did not receive screenplay nominations, the sequels to two of the highest grossing films all time, \u201cBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever\u201d and \u201cAvatar: The Way of Water,\u201d could receive recognition in Adapted Screenplay depending on how they reignite passion for their respective franchises after obstacles like the tragic loss of one of the lead actors, or an over-a-decade-long gap between films.<\/p>\n
Oscar contenders are listed in alphabetical order. Only films I have seen will be deemed frontrunners \u2014 so expect this frontrunners list to change very soon.<\/p>\n
Frontrunners:
\nPeter Craig and Matt Reeves (\u201cThe Batman\u201d)
\nDean Fleischer-Camp, Elisabeth Holm, and Nick Paley (\u201cMarcel the Shell with Shoes On\u201d)
\nAugust Gore and George Miller (\u201cThree Thousand Years of Longing\u201d)
\nKogonada (\u201cAfter Yang\u201d)
\nEhren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer (\u201cTop Gun: Maverick\u201d)<\/p>\n
Contenders:
\nNoah Baumbach (\u201cWhite Noise\u201d)
\nAlice Birch and Sebasti\u00e1n Lelio (\u201cThe Wonder\u201d)
\nJoe Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler (\u201cBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever\u201d)
\nGuillermo del Toro, Gris Grimly, Patrick Hale, and Matthew Robbins (\u201cGuillermo del Toro\u2019s Pinocchio\u201d)
\nChristopher Hampton and Florian Zeller (\u201cThe Son\u201d)
\nSamuel D. Hunter (\u201cThe Whale\u201d)
\nKazuo Ishiguro (\u201cLiving\u201d)
\nRian Johnson (\u201cGlass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery\u201d)
\nRebecca Lenkiewicz (\u201cShe Said\u201d)
\nSarah Polley (\u201cWomen Talking\u201d)<\/p>\n
Longshots:
\nChristine Angot and Claire Denis (\u201cBoth Sides of the Blade\u201d)
\nJames Cameron and Josh Friedman (\u201cAvatar: The Way of Water\u201d)
\nScott Cooper (\u201cThe Pale Blue Eye\u201d)
\nBrian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Pete Jones (\u201cThe Greatest Beer Run Ever\u201d)
\nAndrew Dominik (\u201cBlonde\u201d)
\nLena Dunham (\u201cCatherine, Called Birdy\u201d)
\nDavid Kajganich (\u201cBones & All\u201d)
\nDavid Magee (\u201cA Man Called Otto\u201d)
\nDavid Magee (\u201cLady Chatterley\u2019s Lover\u201d)
\nRon Nyswaner (\u201cMy Policeman\u201d)<\/p>\n
View this article at IndieWire<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oscars 2023: Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions: We will update these predictions throughout awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2023 Oscar picks. Nominations voting is from January 12 to January 17, 2023, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 24, 2023. The final voting is March 2 through 7, 2023. And finally, the
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